Recent developments have forced the USD lower as a September rate cut looks certain, but will the cut be 25bps or 50? And will Powell’s speech shed any light?

Today’s surprise data put paid to the dollar’s fall, with retail sales up 1% vs 0.3% expected – the biggest increase since January 2023.

As we head into the end of the week, Monday's panic seems like a bad dream. However, markets are very nervous and expect more data-driven volatility over the coming months.

Given the high probability of a US rate cut in September and the uncertainty in the EU, the price of the EUR/USD will likely remain dependant on EU data, rather than events in the US.

With interest rates now likely to come down at least twice and possibly three times this year - and Biden’s bid for a second term looking weaker than ever - gold prices are likely to remain elevated.